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A school district conducted standardized testing across two grade levels. Grade 10 has 4 classes, with each class having 10...

GMAT Problem-Solving and Data Analysis : (PS_DA) Questions

Source: Prism
Problem-Solving and Data Analysis
Probability and conditional probability
HARD
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A school district conducted standardized testing across two grade levels. Grade 10 has 4 classes, with each class having 10 students who passed the test and 5 students who failed the test. Grade 11 has 3 classes, with each class having 12 students who passed the test and 8 students who failed the test. A student will be selected at random from all students who took the test. What is the probability of selecting a Grade 11 student, given that the selected student passed the test?

A
\(\frac{9}{38}\)
B
\(\frac{9}{19}\)
C
\(\frac{12}{19}\)
D
\(\frac{3}{5}\)
Solution

1. TRANSLATE the problem information

  • Given information:
    • Grade 10: 4 classes, each with 10 passed and 5 failed
    • Grade 11: 3 classes, each with 12 passed and 8 failed
    • Need: \(\mathrm{P(Grade\,11\,student\,|\,student\,passed\,the\,test)}\)
  • The phrase "given that the selected student passed" signals conditional probability

2. VISUALIZE the data in organized categories

  • Calculate totals for each group:
    • Grade 10 passed: \(\mathrm{4 \times 10 = 40}\) students
    • Grade 10 failed: \(\mathrm{4 \times 5 = 20}\) students
    • Grade 11 passed: \(\mathrm{3 \times 12 = 36}\) students
    • Grade 11 failed: \(\mathrm{3 \times 8 = 24}\) students

3. INFER the solution approach

  • This is conditional probability: \(\mathrm{P(Grade\,11\,|\,passed)}\)
  • We need: (Grade 11 students who passed) ÷ (All students who passed)
  • The "failed" students don't matter since we're only considering those who passed

4. SIMPLIFY the calculation

  • Total students who passed: \(\mathrm{40 + 36 = 76}\) students
  • Grade 11 students who passed: 36 students
  • P(Grade 11 | passed) = \(\mathrm{36/76 = 9/19}\)

Answer: B




Why Students Usually Falter on This Problem

Most Common Error Path:

Weak TRANSLATE skill: Students misunderstand what "given that the selected student passed" means and calculate \(\mathrm{P(Grade\,11)}\) instead of \(\mathrm{P(Grade\,11\,|\,passed)}\).

They calculate: (Total Grade 11 students) ÷ (All students) = \(\mathrm{(36 + 24) \div (40 + 20 + 36 + 24) = 60/120 = 1/2}\)

Since \(\mathrm{1/2}\) isn't among the choices, this leads to confusion and guessing.

Second Most Common Error:

Poor INFER reasoning: Students recognize it's conditional probability but set up the wrong fraction, calculating (All Grade 11) ÷ (Grade 11 who passed) = \(\mathrm{60/36 = 5/3}\), which is impossible for probability.

This causes them to get stuck and randomly select an answer.

The Bottom Line:

The key challenge is recognizing that "given that the student passed" restricts our sample space to only the 76 students who passed, not all 120 students who took the test.

Answer Choices Explained
A
\(\frac{9}{38}\)
B
\(\frac{9}{19}\)
C
\(\frac{12}{19}\)
D
\(\frac{3}{5}\)
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