According to statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the best way to predict the amount of time a nonperishable entity (such as...
GMAT Craft and Structure : (Structure) Questions
According to statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the best way to predict the amount of time a nonperishable entity (such as a building or a technology) will continue to exist is to examine how long it has survived so far. In this view, an item's age is the strongest ______ how much longer it will last.
Which choice completes the text with the most logical and precise word or phrase?
Step 1: Decode and Map the Passage
Part A: Create Passage Analysis Table
| Text from Passage | Analysis |
|---|---|
| "According to statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the best way to predict the amount of time a nonperishable entity (such as a building or a technology) will continue to exist is to examine how long it has survived so far." |
|
| "In this view, an item's age is the strongest" |
|
| [MISSING WORD/PHRASE] |
|
| "how much longer it will last." |
|
Part B: Provide Passage Architecture & Core Elements
Main Point: Taleb believes an item's current age is the most reliable way to predict its future survival time.
Argument Flow: The passage presents Taleb's theory, gives examples of what it applies to, then focuses on the key relationship between current age and future longevity prediction.
Step 2: Interpret the Question Precisely
This is a fill-in-the-blank question asking us to choose the best logical connector. The answer must create the right relationship between what comes before and after the blank.
Step 3: Prethink the Answer
- The passage explains that age helps predict future survival
- So we need a word that shows how age functions in making predictions about longevity
- Age serves as evidence or a signal that helps us make the prediction
✗ Incorrect
- Suggests age makes prediction unclear, but Taleb's method uses age to make predictions more reliable
✓ Correct
- Perfectly captures how age functions as a signal for future survival and matches our prethinking
✗ Incorrect
- Suggests age causes something to last longer, but age doesn't make things survive; it just helps us predict survival
✗ Incorrect
- Implies age judges longevity negatively, which makes no logical sense in Taleb's predictive framework