Research TeamYearAnalysis techniqueEstimated job creation impactMorrison Institute2021input-output modeling2,400-3,100 jobsFederal Reserve Bank2022inp...
GMAT Information and Ideas : (Ideas) Questions
| Research Team | Year | Analysis technique | Estimated job creation impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morrison Institute | 2021 | input-output modeling | 2,400-3,100 jobs |
| Federal Reserve Bank | 2022 | input-output modeling | 8,500-9,200 jobs |
| University Consortium | 2020 | econometric regression | 7,200-8,300 jobs |
| Private Consulting Firm | 2023 | econometric regression | 12,000-15,500 jobs |
Economic policy analysts frequently disagree about the employment effects of infrastructure spending programs. When evaluating the same federal highway investment initiative, different research organizations have produced widely varying estimates of job creation potential. Policy economists Jennifer Liu and Robert Martinez have suggested that these discrepancies may stem largely from differences in the analytical techniques employed by research teams.
Which choice best describes data from the table that indicate Liu and Martinez may be incorrect?
The Private Consulting Firm's econometric regression produced the highest job creation estimates, while the Morrison Institute's input-output modeling yielded some of the lowest projections.
Research teams using the same analytical techniques produced substantially different job creation estimates, suggesting factors other than methodology may be responsible for the discrepancies.
The Federal Reserve Bank's input-output modeling analysis estimated that the highway initiative would create between 8,500 and 9,200 jobs.
Morrison Institute's projections were lower than the Federal Reserve Bank's estimates, even though both organizations relied on input-output modeling for their analysis.
Step 1: Decode and Map the Passage
Part A: Create Passage Analysis Table
| Text from Passage | Analysis |
|---|---|
| "Economic policy analysts frequently disagree about the employment effects of infrastructure spending programs." |
|
| "When evaluating the same federal highway investment initiative, different research organizations have produced widely varying estimates of job creation potential." |
|
| "Policy economists Jennifer Liu and Robert Martinez have suggested that these discrepancies may stem largely from differences in the analytical techniques employed by research teams." |
|
Part B: Provide Passage Architecture & Core Elements
Main Point: Economists Liu and Martinez believe that differences in analytical methods explain why research organizations produce varying estimates of job creation from the same infrastructure project.
Argument Flow: The passage starts with the broad issue of disagreement among policy analysts about infrastructure employment effects. It then narrows to a specific example showing how different organizations studying the same highway project produced varying job creation estimates. Finally, it presents Liu and Martinez's theory that these discrepancies result primarily from differences in analytical techniques.
Step 2: Interpret the Question Precisely
This is a fill-in-the-blank question asking us to choose the best logical connector. The answer must create the right relationship between what comes before and after the blank.
Step 3: Prethink the Answer
- Liu and Martinez claim that different analytical techniques cause the varying estimates
- If they're correct, we'd expect teams using the same technique to produce similar results, while teams using different techniques would produce different results
- But if we look at the table, we can see that teams using the same analytical techniques are producing very different estimates
- This suggests that analytical technique alone doesn't explain the discrepancies
- So the right answer should point out that organizations using identical analytical methods still produced substantially different job creation estimates
The Private Consulting Firm's econometric regression produced the highest job creation estimates, while the Morrison Institute's input-output modeling yielded some of the lowest projections.
✗ Incorrect
- This compares results from different analytical techniques, which actually supports Liu and Martinez's theory by showing different techniques produce different results
Research teams using the same analytical techniques produced substantially different job creation estimates, suggesting factors other than methodology may be responsible for the discrepancies.
✓ Correct
- Directly identifies that teams using identical analytical techniques produced substantially different results and explicitly states this suggests other factors beyond methodology are responsible
- This perfectly challenges their hypothesis
The Federal Reserve Bank's input-output modeling analysis estimated that the highway initiative would create between 8,500 and 9,200 jobs.
✗ Incorrect
- Simply states one organization's specific estimate from the table without addressing Liu and Martinez's theory about analytical techniques
Morrison Institute's projections were lower than the Federal Reserve Bank's estimates, even though both organizations relied on input-output modeling for their analysis.
✗ Incorrect
- Notes that two organizations using the same technique got different results but doesn't explicitly connect this to challenging Liu and Martinez's theory